Editors' Note: Like Editor and Publisher, we don't pretend to know the impact of newspaper editorial endorsements, but the large-scale abandonment of George W. Bush and, to a lesser degree, endorsement of John Kerry, is a dramatic shift. The endorsements tallied by E&P include only daily newspapers and does not count college papers.

NEW YORK -- When the smoke clears next Wednesday (if it does) will anyone say that newspaper endorsements helped decide the next president?

Yes, everyone knows newspaper picks in presidential races don't count for very much, but they do mean something. Surveys by E&P and others in previous years showed that roughly 5 to 10% of voters (or more) felt that editorials had some influence when they cast their ballots. In a battleground state that's not insignificant.

So, without overstating that influence, let's examine what could happen next Tuesday in several key states.

First, as we have detailed in our daily endorsement tally, Sen. John Kerry now holds a fairly narrow lead in the number of endorsements, but he has gained many more of the larger papers, holding about a 17 million to 12 million edge by circulation. Most telling, however, is that at least 36 [now 42] papers that backed Bush in 2000 have now switched to Kerry, and another ten [now 15] that supported Bush before have declared their neutrality this year. Only six [unchanged] so far have gone from Gore to Bush.

This imbalance may be critical. There is a popular misperception that most newspaper endorsements inevitably go Democrat, but E&P surveys in the past have shown that the majority, in fact, back Republicans.

This is true more for smaller newspapers, but even big-city metros are usually split. Seventy-two of the largest papers divided right down the middle in 2000. In 2004, the same papers (at least the ones that have announced their picks) favor Kerry by about a 3-2 margin.

Now, on to a few swinging states, and some predictions, giving (perhaps) undue weight to editorial endorsements:

FLORIDA: Bush is in big trouble here, at least if newspapers have any sway. Every single large paper has gone for Kerry, with the Orlando and Bradenton papers abandoning Bush and The Tampa Tribune (formerly for Dubya) sitting it out. This is how bad it is for the president: As far we know, his two biggest Sunshine State catches so far are the Ocala Star-Banner and The Ledger in Lakeland. So let's give this state to Kerry. In fact, if Bush pulls this one out, E&P promises never to give any weight to editorial endorsements in the future.

PENNSYLVANIA: More bad news for Bush. As expected, the two Philly dailies and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette backed Kerry, and The Morning Call in Allentown also switched to him. The Scranton and Harrisburg papers, previously pro-Bush, declared neutrality. Bush did pick up switches in York and Easton, but we have to give this state to Kerry.

COLORADO: With Dean Singleton taking over as publisher at The Denver Post, both of that city's papers lined up for Bush [the Post backed Gore in 2000 and Singleton, not the editors, apparently made the decision]. Kerry picked up a switch in Boulder, but it's not enough. This state goes in the Bush column.

MICHIGAN: Unlike in previous years, the Detroit papers are not split, with the Free-Press going for Kerry and the News, shockingly, sitting it out. Kerry also picked up switches in Flint and Muskegon. Score this for Kerry.

OHIO: Too tough to call. Of the two big Bush papers from 2000, The Plain Dealer is now (officially) neutral [after endorsing Bush in 2000] and The Columbus Dispatch offered a Bush endorsement that was critical of the president. Elsewhere, Kerry gets Dayton, Toledo, and Akron, while Bush gets Cincinnati and Canton.

IOWA: Kerry gets the Des Moines paper and a switch in Davenport. Bush gets Cedar Rapids. Give it to Kerry.

OREGON: Did anyone notice that this state went from tossup to leaning left (according to the pundits) right after The Oregonian switched from Bush to Kerry?

WASHINGTON: Ditto here, when The Seattle Times jumped to Kerry. The Dem now has both Seattle papers, plus Tacoma's.

Oct 27 Update: Kerry picked up seven new papers on our list today with Bush gaining just three

Kerry also picked up two new papers that had backed Bush in 2000: the Owensboro (Ky.) Messenger-Inquirer and the Herald-Standard of Uniontown, Pa. This gives the challenger 38 ex-Bush papers, while the president has gained only six from the Gore column in 2000.

Jacob Kaplan-Moss of the the Journal-World in Lawrence, Kan., has arranged the papers by circulation size, coming up with the following numbers --with today's additions not included):

500,000 and over: Kerry 5, Bush 4.
250,000-500,000: Kerry 16, Bush 7.
125,000-250,000: Kerry 26, Bush 18.
60,000-125,000: Kerry 27, Bush 21
30,000-60,000: Bush 36, Kerry 31
Under 15,000: Kerry 13, Bush 11.

Oct 28 Update: Three new endorsements for Bush, 13 for Kerry.

Oct 30 update: 186 total for Kerry, 151 for Bush

Nov 1 update: Bush narrowed the gap on Kerry today, picking up 21 mostly smaller papers compared to the challenger's five new additions. This brings the count of daily papers to 208-188 in favor of Kerry.

For the latest full list of all recorded U.S. editorial endorsements, see Editor and Publisher's website.

© 2004 Editor and Publisher

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