The Lunatic Fringe of Capitalism:
Trading in Terrorism

If anyone even suggested publicly the idea of putting a bounty on the head of a Bush Administration official you can bet they'd at least be jailed on felony charges promptly. Yet incredibly, the Bush administration initiated (and then cancelled in the face of immediate opposition) a scheme that would have provided financial incentives for would-be terrorists to assassinate political leaders in the Middle East -- the “Policy Analysis Market,” or PAM.

A graphic on PAM’s website on Monday displayed several hypothetical futures contracts. Investors could bet on the likelihood that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat would be assassinated or Jordan's King Abdullah II overthrown. One less violent investment apparently was suggested -- the U.S. recognizing Palestine as a political entity. Those hypothetical investments were promptly taken off the website, but were captured and presented below.

The Pentagon office that devised PAM, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), said PAM arose from research "to investigate the broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks."

click to see the full original page

While cynics might attribute truly murderous intent to the Bush administration, another explanation is the preponderance of extreme market ideology, whereby G.W. Bush and Company believe capitalism is the answer--regardless of the question. It's reflected in the administration’s position that Iraq should open its oil industry to foreign investment before a permanent government is in place. In other words, ensure corporate profit-making opportunity first--then we can discuss democracy after.

In a statement released Monday, DARPA asserted that markets could reveal "dispersed and even hidden information. Futures markets have proven themselves to be good at predicting such things as elections results; they are often better than expert opinions."

DARPA partnered with two corporations to launch the PAM prototype: Net Exchange, a market technologies company, and the Economist Intelligence Unit, an arm of The Economist magazine.

Senator John Warner, R-Va., of the Senate Armed Services Committee announced on July 29 that PAM would be cancelled -- just hours after many Americans first learned of the plan in their morning newspapers.

PAM proposed to let traders buy and sell futures contracts just like commodities, but the contracts would be speculating on events in the Middle East. These events could have included economic trends, wars, even assassinations and terrorist attacks. Traders believing certain events would occur could buy a futures contract; those thinking the event unlikely could sell theirs. The site had planned to register investors, who supposedly could sign up anonymously this Friday.

The reasoning behind PAM, according to the website of DARPA

The bottom line: one could bet big money that a certain person would die, and then guarantee that investment.  "This appears to encourage terrorists to participate, either to profit from their terrorist activities or to bet against them in order to mislead U.S. intelligence authorities," said Senators Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) in a letter to John Poindexter, the director of the Terrorism Information Awareness Program.

Yes, this is same John Poindexter who was convicted on felony charges for lying to Congress, fraud and conspiracy as part of the Reagan Administration's Iran-Contra scheme. His conviction subsequently was dismissed on grounds that he should have enjoyed immunity from prosecution. The whole Iran-Contra debacle was rooted in belief that installing a government in Nicaragua that would be more friendly to corporate capitalism than the Sandinistas was a cause that justified flouting the laws of the United States. (read more on this)

Some have defended DARPA for "creative thinking" in developing anti-terrorism strategies and its great to have people thinking outside the box, but we need some reasonable people in charge to stuff the bad ideas back in--not take our money and run with them. DARPA already has admitted to spending $600,000 of taxpayers' money on the PAM scheme and the Bush administration had sought $8 million through 2005.

Announcement of the program’s termination should be treated with cautious optimism. Recall that after public and multi-partisan outrage led DARPA to cancel the truly Orwellian "Total Information Awareness" program, it resurfaced shortly thereafter as the less alarmingly titled Terrorism Information Awareness. According to DARPA's Web site, "Previously known as Total Information Awareness, this name created in some minds the impression that TIA was a system to be used for developing dossiers on U.S. citizens."

Name changed, problem solved, right? You’d think they’d at least feel obliged to change the acronym.

The Bush administration has continually employed the strategy of tossing out the most outrageous ideas with the aim of making subsequent, slightly less offensive ideas seem moderate by comparison.

After the administration’s Domestic Security Enhancement Act -- widely dubbed “Patriot Act II” -- was leaked to the public in February and promptly derided as an outrageous assault on Americans’ freedoms, Attorney General John Ashcroft quickly backpedaled from the draft legislation. But just months later, there was Ashcroft, asking Congress to enact substantial portions of the act, which he had earlier dismissed as nothing more than discussion notes.

With this administration, even the worst ideas have a way of getting reborn.

The writer directs ReclaimDemocracy.org

Archive of PAM materials

Follow-up: According to the National Journal (Feb 2006 report), TIA never went away, its components were merely hidden in the shadows.

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